The world is facing a multitude of crises, and the situation is only expected to worsen. Samir Wanmali, the Thai-based director of the United Nations World Food Program for Asia and the Pacific, is concerned about the impact of these interconnected issues on global food security. The UN is tracking 318 million people at risk of acute hunger, with 69 million in Wanmali's region. The situation is further exacerbated by the Kelvin wave, a mass of warm water in the Pacific, which suggests the development of an El Niño. This weather pattern typically causes floods in the Americas and droughts, heat, and fires in Australia and Asia, impacting crop yields.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global oil and gas supplies, affecting the production of urea, a key ingredient in fertilizer. This, combined with the Kelvin wave, could lead to a significant increase in the number of people facing acute food shortages. The UN estimates that 45 million more people are at risk of intense hunger, with 9 million in the Asia Pacific region, due to disrupted weather and shortages of fuel and fertilizer.
The situation is made more complex by the rapid warming of the Pacific Ocean, which has prompted warnings of a super El Niño. While some scientists argue against the term, others suggest that the region's ocean temperatures rising by 2 degrees could have catastrophic consequences. The potential impact of a super El Niño includes severe flooding in Latin America, droughts and bushfires in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Asia, and rapid ice shelf melt in Antarctica. The effects of climate change, combined with the El Niño, could lead to disruptions in fisheries, heat extremes, flooding, and droughts.
The cascading effects of these crises are already being felt. In Pakistan, major flooding is now a regular occurrence, with 3 million people displaced last year. The war has restricted fertilizer and fuel supplies, impacting the transportation and storage of grains. The shortage of plastic raffia, a material used to ship rice, is another complication in the supply chain. While Australia may be better positioned to withstand these challenges, neighboring countries like Bangladesh are highly exposed to the oil crisis, which could disrupt their electricity generation and, consequently, their food systems.
The combination of a likely El Niño and fuel and fertilizer shortages poses a significant threat to Australian agriculture. The real price of food is already rising, with the FAO Food Price Index increasing in March. The potential impact of a super El Niño on global temperatures could make 2027 the hottest year in recorded history, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the world's food systems.
